Unstable policy, shifting tech and complex operations are the new normal, says one of UK’s leading fleet bosses
Fleet managers need to prepare for years of unstable policy, shifting technology and complex operations, according to an industry expert.
Matthew Walters, head of consultancy at Ayvens UK – the country’s second-largest leasing company, with 320,907 cars and vans on its books – told Autocar that fleet managers need to plan further ahead when selecting vehicles and adjust policies yearly to keep up with an unusually fast-moving operatig landscape, having traditionally operated in a sector favouring long-term stability.
Policy remains challenging, especially for electric cars. The Department for Transport has committed to a “mid-point review” of the UK’s zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate in 2027, which could affect vehicle supply. Annual EV sales targets from 2031 haven’t yet been confirmed.
Fleets are also facing a need to recalculate operating costs once the pay-per-mile tax system for plug-in hybrid and electric cars is finalised.
Walters expects that the 2030 deadline for new pure-ICE cars and the 2035 date for all new cars and vans to be EVs will go through a consultation process in the near future.
The uncertainty is such that Ayvens is running quarterly customer briefings on legislation, manufacturer developments and wider political and economic events that can affect fleets’ costs and the supply of vehicles.
“Larger fleets typically have dedicated teams and more resource to keep up with new products, tax rules and legislation. Smaller fleets don’t have the same capacity, so they’re more exposed when things move quickly, and right now things are moving quickly,” said Walters.
That complexity is exacerbated by fast-expanding vehicle choice, he added, noting that 116 new models are due for launch in 2026, many of which are from Chinese manufacturers.
Some fleets are welcoming these newcomers, while others – particularly larger corporate ones – are weighing up the technology against how that brand might represent the company.
Electrification also creates a more varied set of operating costs than with petrol and diesel cars. The gap between public and home or workplace charging prices means two drivers on the same job in the same car could be generating totally different expenses, while “fairness becomes a live issue” if one of them can’t plug in at home, Walters said.
That complexity has led Ayvens to offer more detailed total cost of operation (TCO) calculations, including driver efficiency, uptime and charging behaviour. Frequent charging beyond 80% can affect battery health and residual values when vehicles are auctioned at the end of the contract.
“What we’d say to fleets is ‘build in flexibility; don’t lock into rigid three-year plans on the assumption that today’s technology, tax rules or residual values will hold, because in this market, that’s usually where the opportunity is’,” said Walters.
“Good practice now means moving away from short-term thinking. Rather than just planning for the next renewal cycle, fleets need a three-to-five-year strategy that’s reviewed regularly, not set and forgotten. That way, decisions on vehicle choice, charging set-up and driver policy are made with the bigger picture in mind, not just the next 12 months.”
